2023 NBA Draft: Sleepers and Steals to Keep an Eye On

NBA sleepers and value picks can emerge from almost any point on the draft board.

While the No. 1 selection can’t be slept on, you don’t need to dip too low from there to find a hidden value.

Think teams (like, cough, the Minnesota Timberwolves) wouldn’t want another crack at the 2009 draft after letting Stephen Curry slip to the No. 7 spot? Even Luka Dončić, the No. 3 pick in 2018, looms as an absurd bargain for being a generational talent without going No. 1.

It’s important to set that stage for this discussion on sleepers, because some will have a specific view of the label that won’t necessarily fit all of the following prospects. You don’t have to be a fringe first-rounder or even further off the national grid to offer a strong value proposition at the actual talent grab.

So, while the following five prospects aren’t all buried on big boards, they are generally mocked later than they should go.

Jordan Hawkins should be a lottery lock and has a bankable, valuable skill that arguably deserves consideration in the top 10. Yet, due to some concerns about limited creation, so-so athleticism and no playmaking to speak of, most mocks would lead you to believe he’s not even guaranteed to go in the top 20.

It would be a massive mistake to let him fall that far.

If he isn’t the best shooter in this class, he’s at least in that discussion, and he’s a splash threat all over the floor. His catch-and-fire game is absurdly potent, but he can also launch on the move or skate around overzealous closeouts with one- or two-dribble sidestep threes. His off-ball activity and the mere threat of his perimeter proficiency is enough to bend defensive attention his direction.

The 21-year-old not only knocked in 38.8 percent of his long-range looks this past season, he did so on tremendous volume (15.1 attempts per 100 possessions). He also converted 125 free throws at an 88.7 percent clip. So, in case his picturesque, lightning-quick, repeatable shooting form wasn’t enough to sway you, the numbers align perfectly with the eye test.

Given the perpetually increasing importance of outside shots, you’d think scouts would be drooling over Hawkins by now. Especially since he’s not just a specialist. He’s a threat in transition. He can finish at the basket when he eyes an attack lane. He moves off the ball quickly when his shots aren’t there. He is active on the glass and gives good effort on defense.

Hawkins may not be a budding star, but it’s easy to envision him spending a decade-plus in this league as either a solid starter or an instant-impact spark plug. For teams that aren’t swinging for the fences and are instead trying to build out their roster, he should get more attention as a very-unlikely-to-miss prospect.

It’s not at all surprising to see some rather tepid reaction to the NBA outlook for Jaime Jaquez Jr. He just isn’t the type of prospect who excites most evaluators. He’s neither a great athlete nor much of an outside shooter, and he’ll turn 23 years old during his debut season.

The best front offices and developmental staffs don’t worry about who a prospect isn’t or what he can’t (currently) do, though. Rather, they search for ways that a hooper can help their team, and Jaquez has a ton of those traits.

His feel for the game is phenomenal, which allows him to consistently pick apart defenses with his passing and always make the right-place, right-time rotations on defense. His footwork is flawless. Throw in a boatload of nifty head and ball fakes, and he has the kind of arsenal that makes defenders look foolish.

That iffy outside shooting (116 triples on 32.8 percent shooting over four college seasons) is a concern, but not a glaring one. He already has a pull-up mid-range shot and reliable free-throw shooting (77 percent this season) in his bag. He’s not hopeless from distance, his shot just isn’t fully developed yet.

If it never comes along, he could still beef up a rotation with a wealth of winning plays. He can feed open teammates, find shots off the dribble, overpower smaller defenders in the post, clean the glass and consistently keep his energy level high.

His shortcomings could send him to the second round, but he’s the kind of player who can have everyone wondering how he fell so far while he’s competing for an All-Rookie roster spot.

This time last year, scouts were fawning over the pro potential of Kris Murray’s identical twin brother, Keegan, who went fourth overall to the Sacramento Kings and started nearly every game for their first playoff team in 16 seasons.

The buzz isn’t nearly as loud for Kris—typically mocked in the latter half of the opening round—and it shouldn’t be. Keegan is the superior athlete, and he plays with more physicality. It was easier to envision stardom for Keegan then than it is with Kris now.

Still, potential stardom is far from the only projection that matters for a draft prospect, since most picks won’t become stars. More than anything, teams want to find players who can contribute for a long time and in a lot of different ways. That’s where Murray makes his mark, and it’s why he should be regarded higher than he is.

He is a 6’8″, 215-pound swingman who offers three-level scoring and defensive versatility. That’s essentially the archetype atop just about every offseason wish list.

“Across the league, teams continue to look for wings with real size and athleticism who can immediately step in and play,” The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie wrote. “At 22 years old, Murray figures to provide genuine value within the first two years of his career as a rotation 3/4 with starter’s upside.”

Beyond a limited handle, there really aren’t many warts in Murray’s game. And even that’s a little nitpicky, since NBA offenses won’t often ask him to create. Instead, they’ll lean on his multipositional defense, shot-making, cutting, glass-cleaning and ability to fit almost any system. That’s a ton of traits to get out of a non-lottery prospect.

Among the prospects listed here, Ben Sheppard probably comes closest to fitting the traditional definition of a draft sleeper.

He spent his four college seasons at Belmont and never made the NCAA tournament, so he never hit the radar of casual fans. He doesn’t have standout physical tools (6’5″ with a 6’7″ wingspan), is quickly approaching his 22nd birthday and lacked the jaw-dropping stats you might expect to see from an NBA prospect at a small school (career-high 18.8 points this past season).

Still, the scouting world is waking up to Sheppard, thanks in no small part to a combine performance that buzzed like an alarm clock. He tallied 35 points in two scrimmage games, routinely flashing some of the best decision-making on the court and appearing a step ahead of everyone.

His draft buzz still isn’t where it should be, though. He is an ignitable outside shooter (80 threes on 41.5 percent shooting this season) who can make passes on the move or score off of dribble pull-ups. He is an active, attentive defender both on and off the ball, and he can turn steals into scoring chances with hit-ahead passes and fast processing.

He’s a hair short of true-wing size, but he basically plays like a three-and-D wing who can drive, dish, run pick-and-rolls and convert in-between chances with runners and floaters.

There are roughly 30 teams who could use a player like Sheppard on the perimeter, and his feel and polish should let him step into a rotation role right away.

Just one year back, Dariq Whitehead featured prominently in all of the recruiting rankings for the 2022 class. He slotted second overall on both 247Sports and ESPN.

Fast-forward to the present, and you’ll now find the 18-year-old hovering somewhere in the latter half of the opening round on most mocks. So, what happened?

Well, he suffered a foot fracture that delayed the start of his college career and recently sent him back under the knife. When he played, he fell short of expectations with his creation and explosion, though he did stripe 42.9 percent of his three-balls and hinted at intriguing potential as a three-and-D wing.

What about all of the above gives him sleeper appeal? Well, the hope is he can maintain the strides he’s made as a shot-maker while getting healthy enough to bring back the shot-creation and explosion that made him such a highly touted prospect.

“High-school tape shows more flashes of self-creation and athleticism than we saw this year from a player who was clearly limited by his foot and role,” B/R’s Jonathan Wasserman wrote.

Whitehead’s foot problems will scare off some suitors, but others will see bargain potential. Had he been healthy enough to handle a featured role out of the gate at Duke, he might be tying for top-five placement right now.

When he’s right, he can finish with either hand, score on the move, obliterate defenders at the rim, tickle the twine from range, make live-dribble deliveries and impact the defensive end on or off the ball.

Whitehead landed at Duke as a potential star-in-the-making. If he can put this foot problem behind him, he can still offer the same high-end upside.