Redrafting Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid and the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery

The 2023 NBA Finals featured a pair of superstars who slipped much further in the draft than they should’ve: Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokić.

In 2011, Butler was the 30th and final pick of the first round. Three years later, Jokić was selected in the second round with the No. 41 pick and during a Taco Bell commercial.

If either of those years were redrafted, the order would be a lot different. Today, we’ll look specifically at Jokić’s year. Click here to see if Butler would go No. 1.

With the benefit of hindsight, statistics and knowledge of trends in the game that no one had 13 years ago, we’ll revisit the lottery and a handful of honorable mentions.

T.J. Warren (Originally Picked 14th)

Injuries have limited T.J. Warren to just 41.6 games per season, but he’s been a steady scorer when healthy. From 2017-18 to 2019-20, he averaged 19.3 points per game.

Jordan Clarkson (Originally Picked 46th)

Efficiency has never been his strong suit, but Jordan Clarkson as a Sixth Man of the Year trophy and has averaged double figures in each of his nine NBA seasons.

Joe Harris (Originally Picked 33rd)

It took him a couple years to find his place in the NBA, but Joe Harris quickly became one of the league’s best shooters once he did. He’s fourth of all time in career three-point percentage.

Maxi Kleber (Originally Undrafted)

His numbers won’t blow anyone away, but Maxi Kleber’s defense, particularly his shot-blocking, has made him a valuable piece since the Dallas Mavericks brought him over before the 2017-18 season. In 2019-20 and 2020-21, he also shot 38.8 percent from three.

Jabari Parker (Originally Picked 2nd)

One of the sadder injury stories in recent memory, Jabari Parker was a contender for the top pick in 2014. Two ACL tears derailed his career, and the second came after a season in which he averaged over 20 points per game.

14. Dwight Powell (Originally Picked 45th)

His numbers (7.6 points and 4.5 rebounds for his career) aren’t robust, but Dwight Powell has been a reliable effort player and rim runner for a decade. And that’s something that brings real value for a team with a prolific pick-and-roll handler such as Luka Dončić.

Over the course of his career, the Dallas Mavericks are plus-1.5 points per 100 possessions with Powell on the floor and minus-0.7 when he’s off.

13. Jusuf Nurkić (Originally Picked 16th)

Injuries have limited Jusuf Nurkić to just 38.3 appearances over the last four seasons, but since he joined the Portland Trail Blazers during the 2016-17 season, he’s been one of the league’s more productive bigs when healthy.

As a Blazer, he has put up 14.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.2 blocks.

12. Bogdan Bogdanović (Originally Picked 27th)

Bogdan Bogdanović played five seasons overseas before joining the NBA, so he was more experienced than most rookies. And that’s showed up in his steady play and production.

Over six NBA seasons with the Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks, Bogdanović has averaged 14.2 points in 28.5 minutes while shooting 38.7 percent from deep.

11. Jerami Grant (Originally Picked 39th)

Jerami Grant’s evolution from second-round pick to three-and-D specialist to 20-point-per-game scorer is impressive.

After averaging 9.3 points and shooting 34.7 percent from three over his first six seasons, he’s at 20.7 with a 37.2 three-point percentage over his last three.

Originally Picked 38th

His appearances have been sporadic, at best, for much of his career. Over nine seasons, he’s averaged 51.8 games per year.

But when he’s healthy, Spencer Dinwiddie has been a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can pilot an offense or play second fiddle as he did alongside Dončić.

Over his last five seasons with the Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks, the 30-year-old put up 17.0 points, 5.7 assists and 1.9 threes.

And for his entire career, his teams have been slightly better when he plays.

Yes, injuries and some shooting inefficiency are a concern in the top 10, but Dinwiddie’s ability to create shots for himself and others alleviates that to a degree.

Originally Picked 25th

For four seasons alongside James Harden with the Houston Rockets, Clint Capela was one of the game’s more dangerous rim-runners and rim-protectors.

From 2016-17 to 2019-20, the 29-year-old averaged 14.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks, while shooting 64.5 percent from the field.

Then, in his first season with the Atlanta Hawks, he averaged a career-high 2.0 blocks and led the NBA with 14.3 rebounds per game.

He plays with another prolific assist man in Atlanta in Trae Young, but his time there has proved his game can travel a bit.

And while it’s fair to question the upside of a big who has to have most of his offense created for him, there’s also value in a finisher of this caliber.

Dunks are perhaps the most efficient way to score, and a big who knows when to cut, can finish above the rim and has good hands can get you a lot of them.

Originally Picked 30th

This might feel mighty high for a player with Kyle Anderson’s career averages of 7.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists, but he’s one of the game’s best examples that basketball is about more than basic numbers.

The 29-year-old is one of the NBA’s best connectors. At 6’9″, and with the background of a primary playmaker, he’s truly a positionless player. He can guard all over the floor, frustrate isolation scorers, muck up passing lanes, set up open teammates and even hit the occasional three.

And his intangible-laced game has led to some interesting numbers, even if his minutes have suppressed the basic ones.

Draymond Green is the only player in NBA history who matches or exceeds all of Anderson’s career marks for assist percentage, rebound percentage, block percentage and steal percentage.

Originally Picked 6th

Like Anderson, Marcus Smart’s career per-game averages probably aren’t going to blow anyone away.

Over his nine seasons with the Boston Celtics, he’s put up 10.6 points and 4.6 assists, while shooting a way-below-average 32.3 percent from three.

But for most of his career, the 29-year-old has been a defensive menace who sets the tone for Boston’s defense at the point of attack.

He’s made three All-Defense teams and accomplished the rare feat of securing Defensive Player of the Year as a guard in 2022. And since he joined the Celtics, Boston is first in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions.

Getting that kind of defense out of the point guard position, along with a sprinkle of creation for teammates, is well worth a borderline top-five pick.

Originally Picked 4th

Aaron Gordon has dramatically changed the perception of himself and his game since he was acquired by the Denver Nuggets during the 2020-21 season.

With the Orlando Magic, the 27-year-old often seemed like a power forward moonlighting as a 3. He had a higher three-point attempt rate there. He seemed more intent on attacking out of isolation as a wing.

With Denver, he’s streamlined his attack. He’ll still take open threes and attack mismatches, but those possessions are more calculated. Much of his scoring now is the result of cutting, finishing lobs and playing off Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. The result is a true shooting percentage that’s almost seven points higher than it was with the Magic.

Gordon has also emerged as one of the game’s better and more versatile defenders. This postseason alone, he’s been tasked with defending Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Jimmy Butler. And those teams have been held to just 97.0 points per 100 possessions when Gordon was on those four.

The league average this regular season was 114.8.

Originally Picked 13th

It’s gone somewhat under the radar because the Chicago Bulls have only made one playoff appearance during this stretch, but Zach LaVine has become one of the best scorers in the world.

Over the last five years, he’s putting up 25.1 points with a 55.1 effective field-goal percentage. There are only six players in the NBA who match or exceed both marks during the same stretch.

And while scoring is certainly the main calling card for the 28-year-old, it’s not the only thing he’s been up to with the Bulls.

During this half decade, LaVine is also averaging 4.5 assists. And his 38.8 three-point percentage (on 7.1 attempts per game) make him the kind of shooter who requires constant attention on the perimeter. That, of course, opens up things inside for his teammates (or his own drives).

Originally Picked 7th

Julius Randle has far from the most aesthetically pleasing game in this redraft. He often appears to be recklessly barreling toward the rim, without a discernible plan on what to do once he gets there (or along the way).

His lefty jumper doesn’t exactly evoke memories of Michael Redd or Chris Mullin, either. But it’s hard to argue with the results.

Randle, 28, is one of just three players from this class with an All-NBA nod (he has two, while Jokić and Joel Embiid have five each).

And over the last three seasons, he’s played 220 games and averaged 23.2 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

Getting that sort of production from a 6’8″, 250-pound bully-ball forward is incredibly unique.

In fact, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, Kevin Garnett, Jokić, Oscar Robertson, Chris Webber and Russell Westbrook are the only other players in NBA history to match or exceed all three of those marks over a 220-game span.

Originally Picked 1st

If this redraft were based entirely on advanced stats, the real No. 1 pick wouldn’t have even made the lottery.

Among players actually selected on draft night and with at least 1,000 career minutes, Andrew Wiggins ranks 23rd in box plus/minus, 18th in wins over replacement player (the cumulative version of box plus/minus), 27th in win shares per 48 minutes and 12th in win shares.

Those marks are the result of very limited statistical contributions outside the scoring column and a below-average effective field-goal percentage in each season prior to joining the Golden State Warriors full-time.

Like Gordon, though, the perception of Wiggins changed dramatically once he was recast into the proper role.

With the Warriors, the 28-year-old’s one-man attacks have been limited (or nearly eliminated altogether). He now takes advantage of open catch-and-shoot opportunities or attacks a rotating defense that’s been scrambled by Stephen Curry.

And a smarter approach on the offensive end has freed him up to play better and more committed defense.

All of that came together brilliantly during the 2022 playoffs, when Wiggins was, arguably, Golden State’s second-best player on the way to a championship.

Originally Picked 3rd

In his lone season at Kansas, Joel Embiid averaged just 11.2 points per game. Then he was forced to sit what would have been the first two seasons of his NBA career with an injury.

Before the 2016-17 season (Embiid’s official rookie campaign), it was pretty easy to worry about the long-term viability of the big man.

Seven years later, the 29-year-old has obliterated those concerns on his way to becoming one of the greatest scorers and foul drawers in NBA history.

Among players with at least 10,000 career minutes, he’s first in career points per 75 possessions, tied for sixth in career points per game, first in career free-throw attempts per 75 possessions and third in career free-throw attempts per game.

And all that scoring has had a real impact on the Philadelphia 76ers, too. During his career, they’ve scored 116.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and 108.8 when he’s off.

On scoring ability and production alone, Embiid would have this No. 2 spot locked up, but that’s not all he does.

He’s also been the unquestioned anchor of Philadelphia’s defense throughout his career. And over the course of those seven seasons, the 76ers are sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions, while Embiid is tied for ninth in blocks per game.

Originally Picked 41st

Going from the 41st pick in the draft to the best basketball player in the world is a truly an unprecedented path, which seems fitting for a player with a truly unprecedented game.

His teammate, Ish Smith, summed it up well on NBA Finals media day, when he compared Jokić’s shotmaking to Dirk Nowitzki, his passing to Arvydas Sabonis and his rebounding to Zach Randolph (and even that probably sells the passing short).

It’s an absurd combination of skill that has slowly but surely lifted Jokić to the very top of the NBA’s career box plus/minus leaderboard, just ahead of Michael Jordan and LeBron James.

It’s why he leads the league in triple-doubles over the last three seasons.

It’s why he’s averaged a mind-bending 26.0 points, 12.2 rebounds, 8.7 assists and 1.4 steals, while posting a 66.8 true shooting percentage over the same span.

It’s why Jokić has nearly twice as many career wins over replacement player than his closest rival (Embiid) among 2014 draftees.

It’s why the Denver Nuggets have won their first NBA championship in franchise history.

At 28 years old, Jokić has ascended to the “unofficial best player in the world” throne (and really, the numbers say he should’ve been there for at least the last three years), is one of the greatest passers of all time and is one of the most obvious redraft No. 1 picks we’ve had.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Andrew Wiggins

2. Milwaukee Bucks: Jabari Parker

3. Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid

4. Orlando Magic: Aaron Gordon

5. Utah Jazz: Dante Exum

6. Boston Celtics: Marcus Smart

7. Los Angeles Lakers: Julius Randle

8. Sacramento Kings: Nik Stauskas

9. Charlotte Hornets: Noah Vonleh

10. Philadelphia 76ers (trade to ORL): Elfrid Payton

11. Denver Nuggets (trade to CHI): Doug McDermott

12. Orlando Magic (trade to PHI): Dario Saric

13. Minnesota Timberwolves: Zach LaVine

14. Phoenix Suns: T.J. Warren