French Open 2023 Women’s Final: Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova Predictions

Iga Swiatek will go after her third French Open title in four years on Saturday against Karolina Muchova.

The top-seeded Pole has not dropped a set on her favorite surface and she should be heavily favored to beat her unseeded Czech opponent.

Swiatek was tested in the second set of her semifinal match against Beatriz Haddad Maia, but she powered through a tiebreak to keep her perfect record on the Paris clay.

Muchova advanced to the final through a three-set battle with No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka.

Muchova made three previous Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances before the 2023 French Open, but she only reached the semifinal in one of those events.

Saturday’s women’s singles final will mark the first time Muchova plays in a major title match, but she can draw on some previous results to challenge the top seed.

Muchova is coming off a win over the No. 2 player in the world and she owns a 1-0 head-to-head record over Swiatek.

Muchova is one of the few players on the WTA Tour with a winning record over Swiatek.

However, it must be noted her lone win over the No. 1 player in the world occurred in 2019 prior to Swiatek’s ascension to the top.

Muchova defeated Swiatek in three sets in 2019 in Prague. The location of that match must be noted as well.

Muchova was playing in front of her home crowd, and that likely provided an extra boost in her comeback from down a set.

The 26-year-old will probably have more trouble winning one set off Swiatek on Saturday than she did winning two sets off her in 2019.

Swiatek has been tough to even challenge, let alone beat, at Roland Garros, and that makes Muchova the underdog despite her win four years ago.

No one has gotten close to touching Swiatek’s record in Paris since she emerged on the scene in 2020.

Swiatek enters Saturday’s final with a 24-1 record on the Paris clay in the last four years. Her only loss came in the 2021 quarterfinals against Maria Sakkari.

The top seed has not lost a set in a victory at Roland Garros since the 2022 fourth round, when Zheng Qinwen pushed her to three sets.

In fact, Swiatek has barely been pushed deep into sets by her opponents. She played more than 10 games in a set once during the 2023 French Open.

Muchova took the more arduous route to the championship match, as she battled back from down 5-2 in the third set against Sabalenka on Thursday.

The Czech player started her run in Paris with an upset win over No. 8 seed Maria Sakkari. She is the only woman in the field to beat a pair of top-10 seeds at this year’s French Open.

Muchova produced four straight-set victories, including the opening triumph over Sakkari.

However, Muchova spent more time on the Paris courts and that could be a detriment if Swiatek runs her all over the court with her forehand.

Swiatek has been too good for any of her challengers in Paris.

It would take a monumental effort from Muchova to upset the two-time French Open champion on her preferred surface.

Muchova proved she could battle with two of the top women’s players on the clay in her wins over Sabalenka and Sakkari, but playing Swiatek on the clay is a different type of task.

Muchova’s previous victory over Swiatek may inspire some confidence within, but the No. 1 seed is a far better than she was four years ago.

Swiatek owns the clay-court advantage, and the edge in experience in major finals. Saturday will be her fourth appearance in a championship match. She won twice in Paris and beat Ons Jabeur to win the 2022 U.S. Open.

Everything points to a straight-set victory for Swiatek and an extension of her clay-court dominance.

Prediction: Swiatek beats Muchova, 6-3, 6-3